Dear Neighbor,
      In this letter I will bring you up to date on our recent Master Plan amendments, changes in our
market and why they happened, as well as what to expect in the future, plus info on sale statistics.
I was recently involved with some of our neighbors, public officials and county staff in a focus
group to recommend changes to our areas Master Plan. We were able to not only keep our ½ acre
minimum zoning, but we also extended the boundaries of the Rural Neighborhood Preservation area
(to undo some of the damage done to the plan while Erin Kenny was in office) into adjoining section
13 and cul-de-sac areas near larger streets. This change will help preserve property values of homes
that are close to streets like Buffalo or Desert Inn as buyers will feel more secure knowing the home
next to them will not be converted to commercial. It is also interesting to note that commercial value
did not see the same increase as residential did early this year and the value of a home on Desert Inn
(for example) is now about equal to the value if sold for commercial. Commissioner Boggs-
McDonald stated several times at the hearing that she plans to strictly conform to the new plan
which is an important indicator for our future.
      This leads me to why residential values went up so high early this year. In the wake of 9-11, new
home builders were leery of the market and new home permits fell sharply for a period of time
following the terrorist attacks and the previous stock market drops. This eventually lead to a
shortage of new homes having standing inventory. (It was common in 2003 to wait 6 months for a
new home to be built because of no new building a year or so earlier). Since not all buyers of new
homes were willing to wait for a home to be built they started buying resale homes, which greatly
increased the number of buyers for that market throughout 2003. By early 2004 the resale market
had dropped from approximately 10,000 homes for sale to about 2,000 homes for sale in the entire
MLS! Since a lot of the 2,000 properties for sale were homes that were overpriced, or homes so
expensive that few could buy them, the demand greatly exceeded the supply and prices went up!
Around May 2004 the market hit a plateau for two reasons. First, the new home market had caught
up to the demand and builders now had inventory, and second, the increase in prices was reaching a
point that buyers could not afford to pay any higher price.
      This has resulted in a different market effecting today’s prices in our area. Homes priced at the low
end of our areas market (up to $500K) have seen little to no change in value from a few months ago.
The mid range market ($500K to $900K) has experienced about a 10% drop from the peak of May
2004. The high end market (above $900K) has seen little change as there was never a shortage of
homes for sale in this price range like there was in the low and mid-range. Today, all homes are
taking a noticeably longer time to market compared to early 2004.
     This leads me to how mistakes in an agents marketing of a property for sale can magnify in today’s
changing market conditions. I recently listed and sold a home that had “expired” in Section 11. The
owner had previously gone with one of the “discount specialists” and the home failed to sell. That
agent had “listed” what was a 2 story home with a tile roof in the MLS as a “tri-level” with a “slate”
roof at a price $100K above what two other agents had indicated the home was worth, in what
appeared to be an effort to “win” a listing by suggesting the highest value. While listing mistakes
like “tri-level” only effect the number (or lack) of showings, mistakes in listing a house as having a
“slate” roof (real stone) when it has a tile roof, could lead to law suits against the seller and the agent
when the buyer realizes the difference in cost of the two roofs! Another mistake I commonly see, are
the wrong schools listed for our area, which could effect the number of showings and a law suit if the
property sells, as it is common for a buyer to request a particular school. Our area is zoned for 3
different high schools and 2 different elementary schools, not counting Section 9. Further, a recent
article in our local trade magazine reported that 83% of all the homes for sale in the MLS did not
have photos of the home in the computer when the listing was loaded! The article also stated that
homes with pictures sold on average for more money than the 83% without! The article also stated
that the 83% without pictures was not just “discount” companies, but also included the big companies
too. I find it hard to believe, since we have been able to place pictures in the computer,
that any agent would not take digital photos of the home when they listed it. So I checked our area
and found the same numbers were true. Since the best time to sell a home is when it first hits the
market it is most important that photos are loaded with the listing to help get showings during that
critical first few days instead of waiting weeks for the MLS photographer to take an “outside only”
shot. In short, a “discount” may actually “cost” you more than you can afford!
      As for my “crystal ball” predictions, I still believe we will see property continue to “cool off” until
later in 2005 when we will go back to a normal (3% to 8% annual) appreciation. I believe the next
big peak in value will be around 2010, when we will hit 2 million population and buyers will pay
for areas like ours to avoid traffic. I now believe interest rates will go up in 2005 based on a overall
strong economy and is another reason prices will “cool off” for a while.
      Our sale statistics have been so volatile that averages mean little this year. However, it is safe to
report that “most” homes are still in the range of $140 a square foot on the low side to about $250 a
square foot on the high side, with each Section having its own distinct numbers based on the size of
the home (smaller usually equals higher), the age (newer usually equals higher), the size of the
property (bigger usually equals higher) and the quality of the home and homes around it, as well as
the schools and many other factors. Based on all the variables that may exist I suggest that if you
are planning to sell a property in our area, call me, and I would be happy to give you a market
evaluation of what your property is worth, at no cost or obligation.

Happy Holidays,
Jac Lindell