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September, 2007
MARKET UPDATE
What does the future hold for foreclosure, investors and the different segments of the Las Vegas real
estate market? This letter will bring you up to date on what has happened (not what you hear on the
news), what I believe will happen and when it will happen.
First as I reported in previous letters, the market growth nationally was due to the new home
builders reaction to the tragic events on 9-11-01, which lead to a shortage of available new homes in
2003. In 2004 cities across the country started seeing property values increase, in proportion to the
percentage of sales new homes usually had in that city, as that percentage was shifted to re-sale
homes, causing a shortage in available re-sales. End result was property sky rocketed in Vegas until
the new home builders geared up and got back to standing inventory in 2005. The market continued
in early 2006 to be above normal due to a “feeding frenzy” of investors and the media adding fuel to
the fire about how good the market was. By late 2006, the market figured out it had “over inflated”
and prices started adjusting for the over inflation, this caused a lot of buyers who had purchased on
100% type loans to become “up side down” and foreclosure rates started to increase. This of course
got the media to predict “doom and gloom” on a daily basis which mis-informs the public of what is
truly happening in today’s market.
So what is really going on today in the market? That will depend on what portion of the market we
address, so lets limit it to the Las Vegas market and start here. Multi-million dollar estates are
actually doing better than they were in 2005 and have not seen any drop because they are not tied to
someone’s $250K foreclosure! High rise condo projects on the strip and downtown are still healthy
while the ones on the out skirts never made sense. Investor, rental property has dropped to about
$200K to $220K (for the area I recommend) for a 3 bed 2 bath home and are excellent buys. The
custom homes in my area Section 9, 10, 11, 12 have dropped about 10% for the homes priced from
$500K to $1.5 mill and the homes above that have not really dropped in value.
Now for Jac’s “Crystal Ball” predictions!!!!! T hese are based on what I have preached for the last
25 years, which is our next market will hit around 2010 and will put us into a Los Angles type
market where location in the valley and traffic to the work center, do to our predicted 2 million
population, will drive prices upward.
1. Property in areas like where I personally own my rentals will double in value and become like
living in “Orange County” where you are 10 minutes from the strip and downtown and drive thru a
good area to get there.
2. Section 9, 10, 11, 12 and the mirror area to the north of Sahara will become our “Beverly Hills”
as we are the only location in the valley that is 10 to 15 minutes from the work center without being
to close to urban decay or where you drive thru a undesirable area to get to the work center. Homes
here will not double in value but will increase above any other similar area of Custom Homes in the
valley.
3. Downtown re-development and property conversions around the downtown and strip will be the
money makers for large investors and the “look” of downtown will drastically change.
4.The increase in property values will start in early spring of next year (THAT’S LESS THAN 6
MONTHS AWAY) however no one will notice at the media because it will be subtle as in that
$200K home that was easy to find last week is just no longer there and all that is left is $210K or
more. This increase will start with the close in properties NOT with homes in the extreme outskirts
like Mountains Edge or the North West areas like Centennial Hills where foreclosure properties will
still effect the market, however those areas will not see any noticeable further depreciation.
5.WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS STAYS IN VEGAS. Our market is different than the rest of the
country, we are still seeing tremendous population growth and job growth. I was told the City
Center project on the Strip is the largest construction project ever built in the world that was not
government funded!!!! There are over 50 high rise cranes in the air now and that number more than
doubles the cranes ever in the air in any of our growth spurts in the valley and that means jobs to
afford homes! So next time you listen to the news and they are preaching “doom and gloom” ask
yourself if they are “making headlines” or if they actually know the market, and if they knew the
market why are they reporting the local news instead of making big bucks in the market? (Some
may not even own a house)!!!!!
In closing, now is one of the best times in the history of Las Vegas to invest in real estate as interest
rates are low and so are prices. Use my “Crystal Ball” predictions after you ask me for more details
and I believe you will agree with me and my “Vision” of what is to come.
Sincerely,
Jac Lindell |